Adapting to Win
How Insurgents Fight and Defeat Foreign States in War
Published by: University of Pennsylvania Press, Inc.
312 pages, 152.00 x 229.00 x 0.00 mm, 5 illus.
- ISBN: 9780812246414
- Published: October 2014
When insurgent groups challenge powerful states, defeat is not always inevitable. Increasingly, guerrilla forces have overcome enormous disadvantages and succeeded in extending the period of violent conflict, raising the costs of war, and occasionally winning. Noriyuki Katagiri investigates the circumstances and tactics that allow some insurgencies to succeed in wars against foreign governments while others fail.
Adapting to Win examines almost 150 instances of violent insurgencies pitted against state powers, including in-depth case studies of the war in Afghanistan and the 2003 Iraq war. By applying sequencing theory, Katagiri provides insights into guerrilla operations ranging from Somalia to Benin and Indochina, demonstrating how some insurgents learn and change in response to shifting circumstances. Ultimately, his research shows that successful insurgent groups have evolved into mature armed forces, and then demonstrates what evolutionary paths are likely to be successful or unsuccessful for those organizations. Adapting to Win will interest scholars of international relations, security studies, and third world politics and contains implications for government officials, military officers, and strategic thinkers around the globe as they grapple with how to cope with tenacious and violent insurgent organizations.
Chapter 1. How Do Insurgents Fight and Defeat Foreign States in War?
Chapter 2. Origins and Proliferation of Sequencing
Chapter 3. How the Sequencing Theory Works
Chapter 4. The Conventional Model: The Dahomean War (1890-1894)
Chapter 5. The Primitive Model: Malayan Emergency (1948-1960)
Chapter 6. The Degenerative Model: The Iraq War (2003-2011)
Chapter 7. The Premature Model: The Anglo-Somali War (1900-1920)
Chapter 8. The Maoist Model: The Guinean War of Independence (1963-1974)
Chapter 9. The Progressive Model: The Indochina War (1946-1954)
Appendix A. List of Extrasystemic Wars (1816-2010)
Appendix B. Description of 148 Wars and Sequences
"Adapting to Win makes highly compelling and analytically sound arguments about how to understand the forces that influence the ability of states to confront and defeat nonstate actors."—William C. Martel, The Fletcher School, Tufts University
"A systematic and intellectually compelling work that advances a clear and powerful narrative of the forces that influence the ability of states to confront nonstate actors. The in-depth case studies in this book unearth a wealth of materials that are not well known."—T. V. Paul, McGill University